GTM Glossary · Metrics
Forecast Accuracy
How closely committed forecast matches actual closed revenue in the same period.
[01]What It Means
Usually expressed as the variance between the commit number at the start of a period and the result at the end. Accuracy is a discipline problem before it is a modelling problem: it depends on whether stages have exit criteria that a buyer, not a seller, confirms.
[02]Why It Matters
Boards fund predictability. A slightly smaller number forecast accurately buys more trust, and more budget, than a larger number that slips twice.
[03]Where It Goes Wrong
Stage definitions based on seller optimism rather than buyer action.No category for no-decision, so stalled deals stay in the commit line.Forecasting a new market with the conversion assumptions of a mature one.
[04]Related Terms